Value Wagering

A Web Site Promoting Better Betting

FREE Fair Grounds Reports

For those betting Fair Grounds on Saturday, Dec. 11, 2010, I’ve posted links to both my Win Factor Report (computerized fair odds line) for all the races and my Pace Profile Report for selected races below:
 
Win Factor Report
Pace Profile Report
 
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December 10, 2010 - Posted by | Horse Racing | , , , , , ,

2 Comments »

  1. Derek Simon’s name is new to me.

    He advertises a 52% ROI on his picks for the year.

    QUESTION: when he shows FAIR ODDS of 3/1 (with a M/L of 4/1), and the track odds turns out to be 2/1, does that count as a bet, win or lose?

    Or… is the ROI based on the horse winning at ANY odds?

    Thanks!

    Comment by Jerry | December 14, 2010 | Reply

    • That’s a good question Jerry. First of all, let me say that the 52% ROI I’ve accumulated this year is not sustainable in my opinion (my five-year average is about 25%). But, to answer your question, that return on investment is based on my published free selections, which appear on the TwinSpires, ESPN and CBS Sports Web sites and, yes, those plays are predicated on the fair odds that I assign.

      For example, I might advise betting a contender at odds of 5-2 or greater. That means that if the horse goes off at 2.4-1 (based on the official chart), it is NOT a play. Of course, some of these horses win, some lose (just last weekend, I had a winner at a tick less than my fair odds — it didn’t count in my stats). Also—and this is VERY important — I only count published picks, which I specifically say how to bet (none of this “my fourth choice was an overlay, you should’ve bet it” nonsense). Below is an example from last weekend (the horse that didn’t qualify):

      Evangeline Downs (12/10/10)
      Race 7 * 400 Yards * Quarter Horses

      4-Acorn (7/5)
      Fair Odds: 4-5
      9-Jess Courageous (9/2)
      Fair Odds: 8-1
      7-Sixes Wisdom (10/1)
      Fair Odds: 12-1

      BET(S): WIN/PLACE on 4 at odds of 4-5 or greater.

      Lastly, in cases where I advise more than one bet (like above) and don’t specifically advocate separate bets, I split my standard stake. In other words, in the case above, had the horse qualified, I would have averaged the win and place prices when determining the ROI. That way, folks aren’t betting more just because I have multiple qualifiers. Frankly, this practice has hurt my ROI, but I think it makes more sense (in the past, I didn’t do this as often, which is why you see that I total my bets using both races and selections).

      Hope this helps and thanks for writing!

      Comment by dds511 | December 14, 2010 | Reply


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