Value Wagering

A Web Site Promoting Better Betting

Breeders’ Cup Update

A few updates and observations to pass along:
  1. I thought Friday’s Breeders’ Cup races were quite formful overall, although paying heed to overlays still paid off — big. Two of 12 Win Factor Report overlays that I detailed yesterday returned very juicy mutuels, with Eldaafer (7-1 fair odds) kicking off the festivities at $23.20 and Shared Account (16-1) lighting up the tote board to the tune of $94.
  2. Related to point number one, some have asked me why I didn’t provide concrete selections in the Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide that I put out. Well, the answer is twofold. To begin with, I really didn’t have time. Unfortunately, the data I need for my reports usually doesn’t come out until a day or two before the races, which is way to late to include in a project as large as the Betting Guide. Hence, I could really only peruse the races. Second, and this is very important, in an event like the Breeders’ Cup it really is a good idea to be on value “overkill,” meaning: if it doesn’t pay, you shouldn’t play. Normally, I would not advocate betting a horse like Shared Account, who was ranked seventh on my Win Factor line (and didn’t even appear on the condensed reports I released — I’ve rectified that situation; see below). However, the BC races have proven time and time again that monster longshots can and do win.
  3. Moving from synthetics to dirt was NOT the kiss of death on Friday, as two of 19 horses that did so triumphed, returning $42.40, or an 11.6 percent ROI. Switching from non-turf to grass, however, appears to be as negative as ever (4-0-0-0 on Friday).
  4. My Breeders’ Cup Five-Star BS proved to be… well, worthy of its name, as it pitched a shutout (0-for-12).

Those that bought either my Win Factor Report for Saturday or my Breeders’ Cup Betting Guide should re-check the reports link on pg. 2 for an updated list of potential Win Factor overlays on the BC races.


November 6, 2010 - Posted by | Horse Racing, Sports Betting | , , , , , , , ,

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