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Super Saturday Selections

STAR OF COZZENE

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY: To me this race is all about rider tactics — who’s going to do what. For the most part, all of the entrants have the same stalking style and most have mediocre late speed rations (LSRs) as well. With that in mind, I’m going to make COLIZEO my primary win candidate. To begin with, he’s the only graded winner in the field (despite numerous attempts, the probable favorite, JACKSON BEND, part of an entry with DARK KNIGHT, has never won a graded stakes). Secondly, he is the sole contender, outside of the aforementioned Dark Knight, to have led at the first call in any of his prior races. That, coupled with his rail draw, makes me think he might be sent to the front today and, if that is the case, he could prove tough to overhaul.

THE VOSBURGH (GRADE I)

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY: Don’t be surprised if you see class handicappers slitting their wrists after examining the past performances of this race. Not only is there nary a Grade 1 winner in the field, just four entrants — GIROLAMO (G2), GOLDEN SPIKES (G2), WALL STREET WONDER (G3) AND RILEY TUCKER (G3) — have won any kind of graded race whatsoever. To add insult to injury, no entrant has ever matched the race par (113 Beyer) either.

Not surprisingly, the morning line favorite is one of those graded winners: Girolama. After a decent 2010 debut, the Godolphin-owned colt should move forward today and rates a big shot, as does DRIVEN BY SUCCESS — if he can shake free without undue pressure (granted, that’s a big “if”).

Nonetheless, I’m somewhat intrigued by Golden Spikes, a horse that hasn’t been closer than 8 ¼ lengths in any of his four races since 2008. To begin with, his last race wasn’t as bad as it looks on paper, as he recorded a -11 early speed ration (good enough to lead today’s field) before fading turning for home in the Grade 2 Smile Sprint at Calder Race Course on July 10. Since then, Richard Dutrow has taken over the training — and Dutrow is deadly with new acquisitions, especially in Grade 1 stakes. So the fact that the veteran conditioner sees fit to enter Golden Spikes in a seemingly impossible spot… well, it’s one of those things that makes me go hmm.

FLOWER BOWL INVITATIONAL (GRADE I)

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY: There is absolutely no early speed in this race and that, coupled with the soggy sod, makes for a very unpredictable race, especially since Japanese wonder horse and likely favorite RED DESIRE is a come-from-the-clouds closer. I’ve been impressed with SHARED ACCOUNT, who’s got improving pace figures — but she hasn’t raced in over two months (although her works have been long and steady). KEERTANA also looked good in her latest… but she’s another late runner.

One horse that would be very dangerous if she can snap back in form is GOZZIP GIRL. A former Grade 1 winner, Gozzip Girl won the Sands Point over a yielding course as a sophomore. Better still, she did so in wire-to-wire fashion; food for thought anyway.

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October 2, 2010 - Posted by | Horse Racing | , , , , , , , ,

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