Value Wagering

A Web Site Promoting Better Betting

The Sport of Kings and the King of Sports

When I was a kid — back in the days of the “horseless carriage” and Bret Favre’s pro football debut with the Canton Bulldogs — I used to argue with my dad that investing in the stock market was just the same as playing the races.

“The only difference is that one has a positive expectation, whereas the other does not,” I informed him.

My dad was unmoved. “You’re wrong son,” he said, “the stock market is infinitely safer and easier to predict. Now, let’s go watch the game. Favre’s retiring after this season, so I don’t want to miss it.”

Needless to say, my dad was wrong — about Favre and, later I learned, about the stock market. The truth is speculation is speculation, whether it relates to securities, a football game or the 10th race at Belmont Park.

Which brings me to my column today. As most of you know, the 2010 NFL season officially kicks off on Thursday and since I am interested in all forms of gambling, I thought I would toss out a few pigskin appetizers to go with the racing entrée in this week’s betting buffet.Too Early to Tell

As is the case when one handicaps a horse race, gridiron gamblers should try to find weaknesses in the betting lines. Remember, the point spread is simply used to balance out the amount of money bet on each team — it is not a definitive measurement of which team is better. Just like odds in a race, point spreads, as well as over/under totals, are based on information and, sometimes, that information is irrelevant or outdated or both.

For this reason, the beginning of any NFL season offers great opportunities for value-oriented pigskin prognosticators, as most bettors will be using last year’s statistics as a guide to their wagering. For example, the New Orleans Saints kicked off their 2009 campaign with six consecutive ATS (against-the-spread) wins, undoubtedly due to the fact that the team finished 8-8 the season before and, hence, gamblers were slow to realize how good the “The Bless You Boys” really were.

So, with this in mind, here are some opening-day angles that take advantage of the uncertainties of the new year.

Since 1993:

  • The “under” is 60-46 (+8.1% ROI) in games featuring a line of 42 or greater.
  • Underdogs by more than a touchdown (7 ½ points or greater) are 27-19 (+12.1% ROI).
  • Underdogs by more than a field goal (3 ½ points or greater) in games featuring an over/under total of less than 35 are 8-1 (+69.7% ROI).

Click HERE to read more…

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September 9, 2010 - Posted by | Sports Betting

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